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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 22 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS HAIMA (EGAY).
HAIMA (EGAY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAIMA [EGAY/06W/1104]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 22 June 2011
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression HAIMA (EGAY) drifting slowly westward along the northern part of the South China Sea...weakens slightly.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern & Southwestern China should closely monitor the progress of HAIMA (EGAY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed June 22 2011
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 112.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (133 nm) SSW of Macau
Distance 2: 275 km (148 nm) SW of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 260 km (140 nm) East of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 4: 275 km (148 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Hainan-West Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 400 mm (Very High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Wed June 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)* HAIMA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
HAIMA (EGAY) is expected to remain a weak depression throughout the 1-day forecast...will return to its usual WNW path. This system shall make landfall near Zhanjiang City by Thursday afternoon (June 23).
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 06W (EGAY) is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
ZHANJIANG CITY AREA: about 15 km NE of Zhanjiang City [ETA: 1:00 PM to 2:00 PM Thursday, June 23].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
HAIMA's CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
HAIMA's (EGAY) circulation continues to reorganize while over the South China Sea. Most of its intense raincloud convection remains to the south and southwest of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea), but with some of its scattered bands affecting Southern China & Hainan Island Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) southwest of the center of 06W (EGAY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy with widespread moderate to heavy on-&-off rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN PART OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 22 JUNE POSITION: 20.4N 112.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TWO
DISTINCT VORTICES SPINNING AROUND EACH OTHER FORMING ONE BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND
SHALLOW. A 220138Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK CENTRAL WINDS 15-20 KNOTS,
HOWEVER JUST TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER ARE 25-30 KNOT
WIND BARBS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS
THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH DRIFTED TO THE EAST. THE TD REMAINS
IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. IT WILL BARELY MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY AS
IT TRACKS TOWARDS SOUTHERN CHINA, NAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS ON TOP OF BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT SLOWDOWN OF THE SYSTEM...(more)
>> HAIMA, meaning: A sea horse. Name contributed by: China.
RECENT JTWC / WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD HAIMA (EGAY)...go visit our website @:
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